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540:691 SEMINAR IN INDUSTRIAL & SYSTEMS ENGINEERING |
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Forecasting Container Volume for Infrastructure Investment Decisions Dr. Walter Kemmsies Abstract: Demand for transportation infrastructure has increased
dramatically due to several structural factors, a partial list of which
includes containerization of trade, lower barriers to trade, global information
and communication technology deployment and demographic change. Of these
factors, demographic change is the most likely to continue driving strong
trade, and therefore transportation infrastructure demand, growth. While
the recent surge in transportation infrastructure demand exceeded capacity
expansion, the rise in the valuation of these assets is mostly driven
by sustained high growth, meaning a high multiple of real GDP growth,
coupled with historically low financing costs. Capacity expansion investment
may not grow as quickly as desired because the elements of the investment
process are complex and ownership of any one segment of the transportation
supply chain is not without commercial and operational risks. Different
approaches are needed even for infrastructure in the same asset class.
Therefore capacity expansion is likely to lag demand growth. This outlook
is further supported by an absence of uniform government policy at the
federal and local levels concerning infrastructure needs priorities, Public
Private Partnership structures, permitting and associated environmental
issues.
*Refreshments will be served in the IE lounge area at 4:30 prior to the seminar. Speaker
is hosted by Mohsen Jafari
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